Golden State Warriors vs Memphis Grizzlies Prediction NBA (Feb 25, 2026)
The Golden State Warriors visit the Memphis Grizzlies on Wednesday, Feb. 25, 2026 (7:30 p.m. ET) at FedExForum in a matchup between two short-handed Western Conference teams. Golden State enters 30-28 (11-17 away), while Memphis is 21-35 (11-16 home). ESPN’s matchup predictor gives Memphis a slight edge, but the betting market listed Golden State as a road favorite earlier in the day.
This game is less about star power and more about who can survive the injury chaos with cleaner execution. Both teams are missing major names, and that shifts the focus to rebounding, depth, and shot quality.
Warriors vs Grizzlies quick snapshot
Here is the core game context from ESPN’s preview and game page:
| Category | Warriors | Grizzlies |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 30-28 | 21-35 |
| Away/Home record | 11-17 away | 11-16 home |
| Conference record | 20-17 West | 17-22 West |
| ESPN matchup predictor | 48.6% | 51.4% |
| Listed line (ESPN preview) | GS -3.5 | — |
The interesting split is this: ESPN’s predictor leans Memphis, while the line on the preview page leaned Golden State. That usually signals heavy uncertainty around availability and rotation quality.
Injury report and why this game is weird
Memphis is dealing with a frontcourt crisis. Reuters reported the Grizzlies are operating without true centers, with Zach Edey and Brandon Clarke out, plus Jaren Jackson Jr. having been traded before the deadline. Reuters also noted Memphis has been badly out-rebounded during this recent slide.
Reuters also reported Ja Morant is set to miss his 15th straight game (elbow), while Cedric Coward and Santi Aldama remain out. ESPN’s preview adds more Memphis absences, including Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (out for season) and a day-to-day tag for Kyle Anderson.
Golden State is not exactly healthy either. Reuters says the Warriors were without Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler, Al Horford, and Kristaps Porzingis in Tuesday’s loss at New Orleans. ESPN’s preview lists Curry and Porzingis out, Butler out for the season, Horford day to day, and Seth Curry out.
| Team | Key absences / tags |
|---|---|
| Warriors | Stephen Curry (out), Jimmy Butler III (out for season), Kristaps Porzingis (out), Al Horford (day to day) |
| Grizzlies | Ja Morant (out), Zach Edey (out), Brandon Clarke (out), Santi Aldama (out), Cedric Coward (out) |
Matchup keys that decide the game
Memphis has to survive the glass
Reuters highlighted Memphis’ rebounding problems, including games where the Grizzlies were heavily outworked on the boards. Against a Warriors team that still moves the ball and can create weak-side rebounding chances, that is a major problem.
Golden State’s offense without Curry
Golden State just lost 113-109 in New Orleans, but De’Anthony Melton scored 28 and Moses Moody added 24, showing the Warriors can still generate enough offense if role players stay hot. Reuters also noted Golden State had 42 assists in its win over Denver on Sunday, which is the formula here again.
Recent series edge
ESPN’s preview shows Golden State leading the season series 2-0, including a 114-113 win on Feb. 10. That matters because these short-handed games often come down to late execution and familiarity.
Golden State Warriors vs Memphis Grizzlies prediction
Memphis has the home floor, but the Grizzlies’ frontcourt injuries and rebounding issues are difficult to ignore. Golden State is also depleted, yet the Warriors have shown they can still manufacture offense through passing and wing shot-making.
Prediction: Warriors 116, Grizzlies 111. Golden State’s edge is its ball movement and slightly more stable shot creation from the current available group, while Memphis’ path gets much tougher if it loses the possession battle on the glass.
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