Dallas Mavs vs Indiana Pacers Prediction NBA (Feb 22, 2026)
The Dallas Mavericks visit the Indiana Pacers on Sunday, Feb. 22, 2026 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in a matchup between two teams searching for stability after brutal stretches. Dallas comes in 19-36 and has dropped 10 straight, while Indiana sits 15-42 after back-to-back losses to Washington.
Mavs vs Pacers quick snapshot
Both teams have struggled defensively, but the way they get there is different. Dallas has been forced into patchwork rotations, while Indiana’s offense has been inconsistent and is now tied closely to the availability of its best creator and best scorer.
| Category | Mavericks | Pacers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 19-36 | 15-42 |
| Points per game | 113.9 | 111.2 |
| Points allowed per game | 117.5 | 118.7 |
| Rebounds per game | 44.7 | 42.7 |
| Assists per game | 25.0 | 26.1 |
| ESPN matchup predictor | 60% | 40% |
Injury report and why it matters
The injury list is the biggest reason this game is hard to handicap cleanly. Dallas is missing major creators and frontcourt depth, while Indiana has key day-to-day tags on its lead guard and top scorer.
| Team | Player | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Mavericks | Kyrie Irving | Out (knee) |
| Mavericks | Dereck Lively II | Out (foot) |
| Mavericks | Cooper Flagg | Game-time decision (foot) |
| Mavericks | Daniel Gafford | Game-time decision (ankle) |
| Mavericks | Caleb Martin | Game-time decision (ankle) |
| Mavericks | Max Christie | Game-time decision (ankle) |
| Pacers | Pascal Siakam | Game-time decision (hamstring) |
| Pacers | Andrew Nembhard | Game-time decision (back) |
| Pacers | Aaron Nesmith | Game-time decision (ankle) |
| Pacers | Obi Toppin | Out (foot) |
| Pacers | Ivica Zubac | Out (ankle) |
If Siakam sits or is limited, Indiana loses its most reliable scoring base and much of its ability to create efficient offense in the half court. If Flagg remains limited, Dallas has to manufacture points through role-player shot making and second chances, which is a thinner path on the road.
Key matchup edges to watch
1) Can Indiana generate clean offense without Siakam at full strength
ESPN lists Siakam as Indiana’s points and rebounds leader, and Nembhard as the assist leader. If either is limited, the Pacers’ offense can drift into long, low-quality possessions, especially late in quarters.
2) Dallas has to win the glass to survive cold shooting
Dallas holds a rebounding edge in the team stats (44.7 to 42.7). With Irving out and Dallas already in a scoring drought stretch, extra possessions are the simplest way to stay afloat.
3) Turnover pressure and transition points
Both teams allow a lot of points, so the separator is often the easy stuff: live-ball turnovers, runouts, and quick threes before the defense is set. Dallas nearly stole a win in Minnesota by rallying late, but it still could not close, which has been the story of the streak.
Dallas Mavs vs Indiana Pacers prediction
This projects as a messy game with heavy availability influence. If Indiana gets Siakam and Nembhard close to full speed, the Pacers should be able to create the better shots at home. If Indiana is short-handed, Dallas’ rebounding and size can keep it close long enough for a fourth-quarter coin flip.
Prediction: Pacers 113, Mavericks 108. Indiana’s home environment and the chance to have the best two-way player on the floor (if Siakam plays) are the swing factors, while Dallas’ path relies on controlling the glass and keeping the game out of transition.
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