Memphis Grizzlies vs Indiana Pacers Prediction NBA (Mar 1, 2026)
The Memphis Grizzlies visit the Indiana Pacers on Sunday, Mar. 1, 2026 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in a matchup between two teams trying to build anything resembling momentum. Memphis enters 22-36 (10-18 away), while Indiana is 15-45 (10-21 home), and ESPN’s matchup predictor gives the Grizzlies the edge on the road.
Indiana comes in on a five-game losing streak, while Memphis at least snapped its recent skid with a convincing 124-105 win in Dallas on Friday night.
Grizzlies vs Pacers quick snapshot
This game is not pretty, but the profile gap still matters. Memphis has been better on both ends overall, and the Grizzlies hold the edge in rebounds, assists, steals, and shot prevention.
| Category | Grizzlies | Pacers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 22-36 | 15-45 |
| Away/Home split | 10-18 away | 10-21 home |
| Points per game | 115.6 | 111.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 117.9 | 119.5 |
| Rebounds per game | 44.5 | 42.6 |
| Assists per game | 28.8 | 26.3 |
| Steals per game | 8.6 | 7.5 |
| ESPN matchup predictor | 54.0% | 46.0% |
Injury report and availability swing factors
This game is going to be shaped by the questionable tags. Memphis lists Ty Jerome, Santi Aldama, and Cedric Coward as game-time decisions, while Brandon Clarke is out and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is out for the season. Indiana has Andrew Nembhard, Pascal Siakam, Aaron Nesmith, and Ivica Zubac all listed as game-time decisions, with Johnny Furphy out for the season.
The biggest name here is Siakam. ESPN’s season-leader section has him at 23.9 points and 6.8 rebounds per game, making him Indiana’s clearest source of reliable offense. If he is limited or out, the Pacers’ already shaky half-court scoring gets much thinner.
Matchup keys that decide the game
1) Memphis has the stronger statistical floor
Indiana is shooting 45.0% from the field this season, while ESPN’s preview notes Memphis opponents are allowing 47.1% shooting. On the other side, the Grizzlies are shooting 46.1%, while Indiana is giving up 48.8% to opponents. That is one of the clearest reasons Memphis has the more trustworthy baseline here.
2) The Grizzlies just showed real bench life
Reuters reported Memphis got seven players in double figures and 60 bench points in the win over Dallas, with Cam Spencer scoring 25. In a game between injury-hit teams, that kind of depth production matters because it can survive a cold shooting stretch better than a top-heavy offense can.
3) Indiana’s defense has completely cratered
ESPN’s recap of the Hornets loss says the Pacers have now allowed 130 points in three straight games for only the third time in franchise history. That is the stat that hangs over this matchup. If Indiana cannot slow Charlotte, it is hard to trust the Pacers to suddenly tighten up against a Memphis team that moves the ball better and gets more contributions across the rotation.
Season series note
Memphis already won the first meeting, beating Indiana 128-103 in the opening matchup on Oct. 26. That does not guarantee a repeat, but it is another sign that the Grizzlies have already solved this version of the Pacers once.
Memphis Grizzlies vs Indiana Pacers prediction
Indiana has the home floor, but right now the Pacers are too unstable defensively and too dependent on questionable players to feel trustworthy. Memphis is not exactly healthy either, but the Grizzlies have the better overall numbers, the fresher confidence from Friday’s win, and more evidence of workable depth.
Prediction: Grizzlies 118, Pacers 111. Memphis has the clearer path through rebounding, bench scoring, and a slightly more reliable defensive floor, especially if Siakam is limited.
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